Poker Hand Probabilities
Using a Poker odds Calculator. Want to know how far ahead or behind you are in a Texas Hold’em hand against one, two or more opponents? Our poker calculator is the perfect medium for finding out the odds in any given situation. Simply plug in your hand, your opponents’ hands, and the board, and you’ll be on the way to figuring out your. Because of this, one can use probability by outcomes to compute the probabilities of each classification of poker hand. The binomial coefficient can be used to calculate certain combinations of cards. Then, the counting principles of rule of sum and rule of product can be used to compute the frequency of each poker hand classification. Then, the probability of each poker hand classification is simply its. Poker Hand Probabilities. Mark Brader has provided the following tables of probabilities of the various five-card poker hands when five cards are dealt from a single 52-card deck, and also when using multiple decks. The traditional hand types are described on the poker hand ranking page. These include one hand that belongs to two types at once.
Calculating Poker Odds for Dummies - A FREE, #1 guide to mastering odds. How to quickly count outs to judge the value & chance of winning a hand in 2021. In poker, the probability of each type of 5-card hand can be computed by calculating the proportion of hands of that type among all possible hands. Frequency of 5-card poker hands The following enumerates the (absolute) frequency of each hand, given all combinations of 5 cards randomly drawn from a full deck of 52 without replacement.
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5 Card Poker probabilities
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Ranking of poker hands
In poker, the probability of each type of 5-card hand can be computed by calculating the proportion of hands of that type among all possible hands.
Frequency of 5-card poker hands
The following enumerates the (absolute) frequency of each hand, given all combinations of 5 cards randomly drawn from a full deck of 52 without replacement. Wild cards are not considered. The probability of drawing a given hand is calculated by dividing the number of ways of drawing the hand by the total number of 5-card hands (the sample space, five-card hands). The odds are defined as the ratio (1/p) - 1 : 1, where p is the probability. Note that the cumulative column contains the probability of being dealt that hand or any of the hands ranked higher than it. (The frequencies given are exact; the probabilities and odds are approximate.)
The nCr function on most scientific calculators can be used to calculate hand frequencies; entering nCr with 52 and 5, for example, yields as above.
Hand | Frequency | Approx. Probability | Approx. Cumulative | Approx. Odds | Mathematical expression of absolute frequency |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Royal flush | 4 | 0.000154% | 0.000154% | 649,739 : 1 | |
Straight flush (excluding royal flush) | 36 | 0.00139% | 0.00154% | 72,192.33 : 1 | |
Four of a kind | 624 | 0.0240% | 0.0256% | 4,164 : 1 | |
Full house | 3,744 | 0.144% | 0.170% | 693.2 : 1 | |
Flush (excluding royal flush and straight flush) | 5,108 | 0.197% | 0.367% | 507.8 : 1 | |
Straight (excluding royal flush and straight flush) | 10,200 | 0.392% | 0.76% | 253.8 : 1 | |
Three of a kind | 54,912 | 2.11% | 2.87% | 46.3 : 1 | |
Two pair | 123,552 | 4.75% | 7.62% | 20.03 : 1 | |
One pair | 1,098,240 | 42.3% | 49.9% | 1.36 : 1 | |
No pair / High card | 1,302,540 | 50.1% | 100% | .995 : 1 | |
Total | 2,598,960 | 100% | 100% | 1 : 1 |
The royal flush is a case of the straight flush. It can be formed 4 ways (one for each suit), giving it a probability of 0.000154% and odds of 649,739 : 1.
When ace-low straights and ace-low straight flushes are not counted, the probabilities of each are reduced: straights and straight flushes each become 9/10 as common as they otherwise would be. The 4 missed straight flushes become flushes and the 1,020 missed straights become no pair.
Note that since suits have no relative value in poker, two hands can be considered identical if one hand can be transformed into the other by swapping suits. For example, the hand 3♣ 7♣ 8♣ Q♠ A♠ is identical to 3♦ 7♦ 8♦ Q♥ A♥ because replacing all of the clubs in the first hand with diamonds and all of the spades with hearts produces the second hand. So eliminating identical hands that ignore relative suit values, there are only 134,459 distinct hands.
The number of distinct poker hands is even smaller. For example, 3♣ 7♣ 8♣ Q♠ A♠ and 3♦ 7♣ 8♦ Q♥ A♥ are not identical hands when just ignoring suit assignments because one hand has three suits, while the other hand has only two—that difference could affect the relative value of each hand when there are more cards to come. However, even though the hands are not identical from that perspective, they still form equivalent poker hands because each hand is an A-Q-8-7-3 high card hand. There are 7,462 distinct poker hands.
Derivation of frequencies of 5-card poker hands
of the binomial coefficients and their interpretation as the number of ways of choosing elements from a given set. See also: sample space and event (probability theory).
- Straight flush — Each straight flush is uniquely determined by its highest ranking card; and these ranks go from 5 (A-2-3-4-5) up to A (10-J-Q-K-A) in each of the 4 suits. Thus, the total number of straight flushes is:
- Royal straight flush — A royal straight flush is a subset of all straight flushes in which the ace is the highest card (ie 10-J-Q-K-A in any of the four suits). Thus, the total number of royal straight flushes is
- or simply . Note: this means that the total number of non-Royal straight flushes is 36.
- Royal straight flush — A royal straight flush is a subset of all straight flushes in which the ace is the highest card (ie 10-J-Q-K-A in any of the four suits). Thus, the total number of royal straight flushes is
- Four of a kind — Any one of the thirteen ranks can form the four of a kind by selecting all four of the suits in that rank. The final card can have any one of the twelve remaining ranks, and any suit. Thus, the total number of four-of-a-kinds is:
- Full house — The full house comprises a triple (three of a kind) and a pair. The triple can be any one of the thirteen ranks, and consists of three of the four suits. The pair can be any one of the remaining twelve ranks, and consists of two of the four suits. Thus, the total number of full houses is:
- Flush — The flush contains any five of the thirteen ranks, all of which belong to one of the four suits, minus the 40 straight flushes. Thus, the total number of flushes is:
- Straight — The straight consists of any one of the ten possible sequences of five consecutive cards, from 5-4-3-2-A to A-K-Q-J-10. Each of these five cards can have any one of the four suits. Finally, as with the flush, the 40 straight flushes must be excluded, giving:
- Three of a kind — Any of the thirteen ranks can form the three of a kind, which can contain any three of the four suits. The remaining two cards can have any two of the remaining twelve ranks, and each can have any of the four suits. Thus, the total number of three-of-a-kinds is:
- Two pair — The pairs can have any two of the thirteen ranks, and each pair can have two of the four suits. The final card can have any one of the eleven remaining ranks, and any suit. Thus, the total number of two-pairs is:
- Pair — The pair can have any one of the thirteen ranks, and any two of the four suits. The remaining three cards can have any three of the remaining twelve ranks, and each can have any of the four suits. Thus, the total number of pair hands is:
- No pair — A no-pair hand contains five of the thirteen ranks, discounting the ten possible straights, and each card can have any of the four suits, discounting the four possible flushes. Alternatively, a no-pair hand is any hand that does not fall into one of the above categories; that is, any way to choose five out of 52 cards, discounting all of the above hands. Thus, the total number of no-pair hands is:
- Any five card poker hand — The total number of five card hands that can be drawn from a deck of cards is found using a combination selecting five cards, in any order where n refers to the number of items that can be selected and r to the sample size; the '!' is the factorial operator:
This guide is licensed under the GNU Free Documentation License. It uses material from the Wikipedia.
Home > 5 Card Poker probabilities
In the standard game of poker, each player gets5 cards and places a bet, hoping his cards are 'better'than the other players' hands.
The game is played with a pack containing 52 cards in 4 suits, consisting of:
13 hearts:
13 diamonds
13 clubs:
13 spades:
♥ 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 J Q K A
♦ 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 J Q K A
♣ 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 J Q K A
♠ 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 J Q K A
The number of different possible poker hands is found by counting the number of ways that 5 cards can be selected from 52 cards, where the order is not important. It is a combination, so we use `C_r^n`.
The number of possible poker hands
`=C_5^52=(52!)/(5!xx47!)=2,598,960`.
Royal Flush
The best hand (because of the low probability that it will occur) is the royal flush, which consists of 10, J, Q, K, A of the same suit. There are only 4 ways of getting such a hand (because there are 4 suits), so the probability of being dealt a royal flush is
`4/(2,598,960)=0.000 001 539`
Straight Flush
The next most valuable type of hand is a straight flush, which is 5 cards in order, all of the same suit.
For example, 2♣, 3♣, 4♣, 5♣, 6♣ is a straight flush.
For each suit there are 10 such straights (the one starting with Ace, the one starting with 2, the one starting with 3, ... through to the one starting at 10) and there are 4 suits, so there are 40 possible straight flushes.
The probability of being dealt a straight flush is
`40/(2,598,960)=0.000 015 39`
[Note: There is some overlap here since the straight flush starting at 10 is the same as the royal flush. So strictly there are 36 straight flushes (4 × 9) if we don't count the royal flush. The probability of getting a straight flush then is 36/2,598,960 = 0.00001385.]
The table below lists the number ofpossible ways that different types of hands can arise and theirprobability of occurrence.
Ranking, Frequency and Probability of Poker Hands
Hand | No. of Ways | Probability | Description |
Royal Flush | 4 | 0.000002 | Ten, J, Q, K, A of one suit. |
Straight Flush | 36 | 0.000015 | A straight is 5 cards in order. (Excludes royal and straight flushes.) An example of a straight flush is: 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, all spades. |
Four of a Kind | 624 | 0.000240 | Example: 4 kings and any other card. |
Full House | 3,744 | 0.001441 | 3 cards of one denominator and 2 cards of another. For example, 3 aces and 2 kings is a full house. |
Flush | 5,108 | 0.001965 | All 5 cards are from the same suit. (Excludes royal and straight flushes) For example, 2, 4, 5, 9, J (all hearts) is a flush. |
Straight | 10,200 | 0.003925 | The 5 cards are in order. (Excludes royal flush and straight flush) For example, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 (any suit) is a straight. |
Three of a Kind | 54,912 | 0.021129 | Example: A hand with 3 aces, one J and one Q. |
Two Pairs | 123,552 | 0.047539 | Example: 3, 3, Q, Q, 5 |
One Pair | 1,098,240 | 0.422569 | Example: 10, 10, 4, 6, K |
Nothing | 1,302,540 | 0.501177 | Example: 3, 6, 8, 9, K (at least two different suits) |
Question
The probability for a full house is given above as 0.001441. Where does this come from?
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Answer
Explanation 1:
Probability of 3 cards having the same denomination: `4/52 xx 3/51 xx 2/50 xx 13 = 1/425`.
(There are 13 ways we can get 3 of a kind).
The probability that the next 2 cards are a pair: `4/49 xx 3/48 xx 12 = 3/49`
(There are 12 ways we can get a pair, once we have already got our 3 of a kind).
The number of ways of getting a particular sequence of 5 cards where there are 3 of one kind and 2 of another kind is:
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`(5!)/(3!xx2!)=10`
So the probability of a full house is
`1/425 xx 3/49 xx 10 ` `= 6/(4,165)` `=0.001 440 6`
Explanation 2:
Number of ways of getting a full house:
`(C(13,1)xxC(4,3))` `xx(C(12,1)xxC(4,2))`
`=(13!)/(1!xx12!)` `xx(4!)/(3!xx1!)` `xx(12!)/(1!xx11!)` `xx(4!)/(2!xx2!)`
`=3744`
Number of possible poker hands
`=C(52,5)` `=(52!)/(47!xx5!)` `=2,598,960`
So the probability of a full house is given by:
`P('full house')`
`='ways of getting full house'/'possible poker hands'`
`= (3,744)/(2,598,960)`
`=0.001 441`